UK Climate Change Projections

In November 2018 the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs launched the most up-to-date UK Climate Change Projections (UKCP18) which illustrates a range of future climate scenarios until 2100. The projections are based on the latest scientific findings and observations available from the Met Office and globally. The results set out a range of possible outcomes over the next century based on different rates of greenhouse gas emitted into the atmosphere. Outcomes include anticipated changes to climate variables such as precipitation, temperature, wind speed and sea level rise.

The projections

UKCP18 projects greater chance of hotter, drier summers and warmer, wetter winters with more extreme weather and rising sea levels.   The high emission scenario for Northern Ireland shows that by:

  • 2070 winters could be up to 3.9 °C warmer and summers could be up to 4.9°C hotter
  • 2070 winters could be 25 per cent wetter and summers 38 per cent drier; and
  • 2100 sea levels in Belfast could rise by up to 94cms.

In order to make UKCP18 as widely accessible as possible across all sectors including government, local government, businesses and homes, the information it contains is available through the UK Climate Projections MET Office website. The user interface allows users to interrogate the system to produce customised output on expected climate change for the UK.


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