UK Climate Change Projections

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In June 2009 the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs launched the 2009 UK Climate Projections (UKCP09). The projections provide information on future changes to our climate up to the end of this century under different emission scenarios. These are based on anticipated changes to climate variables such as precipitation, temperature, wind speed and sea level rise.

The projections

The UK Climate Projections indicate that we are likely to see hotter drier summers and warmer wetter winters, coupled with increased frequency of extreme weather occurrences such as heat waves, dry spells, heavy rain and flooding. Some of the key findings from the Climate Change Projections estimate that by the 2050’s Northern Ireland will have:

  • An increase in winter mean temperature of approximately 1.7 °C
  • An increase in summer mean temperature of approximately 2.2°C
  • Changes in winter mean precipitation of approximately +9%
  • Changes in summer mean precipitation of approximately -12%
  • Sea level rise for Belfast of 14.5cm above the 1990 sea level

In order to make UKCP09 as widely accessible as possible, the information it contains is available through the UK website. The user interface allows users to interrogate the system to produce customised output on expected climate change for the UK. 

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